With the summer transfer window approaching and with different players refusing/failing to extend their contracts, I’ll explore some names that Arsenal could look to get in, for their ‘weaker positions.’
Players with contracts expiring in 2022 will be looked at, and all information provided (and data provided) is true as of the 5th of March.
Right Back:
The Right-Back position has been a position where Arsenal need reinforcement, but there aren’t many players available that pose an upgrade on Hector Bellerin, or they’re not a fit for the role in which Hector Bellerin plays.
1. Noussair Mazraoui of Ajax: Mazraoui’s contract expires in 2022, which should make him affordable no matter what European competition Arsenal end up playing next season. His role in the Ajax side changes depending on the competition, as he tends to drift inwards in a fashion similar to Hector Bellerin in the Eredivisie but in the Champions League, he is more of a touchline RB. His ability to change between the two roles is what Arteta looks for in a fullback, and watching him in the last season, he would be a good value for money if Arsenal utilizes their relationship with Marc Overmars properly.
The scatter graph shows that Mazraoui is a good ball carrier and he gets on the ball a fair amount (averages ~83 touches per 90.) He gets 5.07 final third passes per 90, which is over double what Hector Bellerin currently achieves in all competitions. Output for an inverted fullback doesn’t matter that much, but It’s still worrying that he only has 2 G+A in the entirety of this season. Transfermarkt has his value down at £13.50 million, but I see him going for ~£20 million if he doesn’t re-sign with Ajax. There’s a deal to be explored there.
2. Gonzalo Montiel of River Plate: He has a release clause of £20 million with AS reporting that the player is available for £6 million, a deal that I’m tempted by. His contract expires at the end of 2022 as he signed a 12-month contract extension last month, which is perfect for Arsenal. Ideally, Arsenal gets him in and allows him to rotate with Hector Bellerin for 12 months before reassessing the situation, but with Bellerin looking like he is set to leave the club in the upcoming months, a cut-price deal for Montiel would be the way forward for Arsenal.
Gonzalo Montiel seems to be a secure player when on the ball, the type of player you would want to have on the byline with an aerially sound center-forward to target, which is similar to the role that Kieran Tierney plays for Arsenal. Montiel is average when it comes to ball retention, and he can have some moments where he could lose the ball which might be alleviated with an RCM/RCB covering for him when he does receive the ball in the middle third of the pitch. He’s great value for money, but signing him or Mazraoui depends on what Mikel Arteta wants in a right-back.
Centre Back:
The Centre Back market has seen new names emerge all the time – from young prospects in William Saliba and Wesley Fofana to older options like Thiago Silva and Sergio Ramos. But there has been a neglected market by many top teams, the 23-29-year-old ‘experienced CB’ market where there are good deals to be found if tracked properly. I will name a few players that could do a good job in the Arsenal defense and replace David Luiz in the summer if he does end up leaving.
1. Nico Elvedi of Moenchengladbach: Nico Elvedi has 18 months left on his remaining deal, with CIES Football Observatory valuing him at 20-30m euros, so he should be a good option for Arsenal to have. His issue is that he is an LCB, after being converted into one in 2018/19 by Dieter Hecking, but he played as an RCB/RB before that.
What I like about Nico Elvedi is that he already has to defend a fair amount at Monchengladbach, so he’s used to always being ready for attackers coming at him, and he is a difficult defender for attackers to get past (which is why he beats ~70% of impending dribblers.) He has won 67/101 Aerial duels (66% Aerial duel win rate,) so he is a competent option to have as a defender at the back. On the ball, he is a dream for any manager, he has completed 92.3% of passes this season, and the last time his total passing completion % had dropped below 90% was in 2017/18, so on paper, he is the dream CB for a manager to have. Whether Arsenal should or should not get him, that’s up to what you think, but he is a serious option for Arsenal to look at in my eyes.
2. James Tarkowski of Burnley: James Tarkowski is the biggest risk for any top PL club to take as he has mainly featured in a system that benefits the defender as he has to defend and get the ball out no matter what. That isn’t a bad thing as Lewis Dunk was typified as one of those CB’s until Graham Potter tore up those expectations of Dunk, and he was a viable side for any ‘attractive team’ with Leicester nearly signing Dunk for £45 million in 2019 according to Talksport. Tarkowski has a CIES football observatory set market value of 7-10m euros, which isn’t something I will take seriously considering the different factors surrounding the player. A fee of ~£25 million will be more apt for him.
The best way to show how good of an on-the-ground defender Tarkowski is by showing how frequently he faces up against attackers and how often he has to clear out the ball from his half. He has made 148 clearances so far this season, and he has tackled 23/34 opposing attackers, so he’s a good player to have when your team is under pressure. His passing is a huge cause for concern as he has never averaged more than 25.5 passes per 90, with a total pass completion rate of 71.5%. Isolated stats are never a good way to show how a defender is, and they show what a defender is tasked to do instead, but signing Tarkowski for anything more than £20-25m may be a fatal mistake for Arsenal even with the depth of PL experience he has accumulated in the last 4 seasons at Burnley.
3. Luiz Felipe of Lazio: The Serie A has produced great defenders in the last few decades, and there is an argument to be made for Lazio’s Luiz Felipe to be next on the list. With a contract expiring in 2022, the 23-year-old Brazilian may be a good player for Arsenal to look at. Bear in mind that Luiz Felipe has missed 20 league games for Lazio this season hence his sample size is far smaller than Elvedi’s and Tarkowski. He had also contracted Covid during the start of November on top of that.
The data shows that Luiz Felipe has done well with his limited game time so far (I adjusted the parameters to include defenders who played 8+ 90’s.) Since 2018/19, Luiz Felipe has operated as an RCB, which is what Arsenal need in a center back, and he is strong on the ball with 2017/18 being the last time he had a passing completion % of below 90%, and he has attempted more than 9 long passes per game for the last few seasons with this season being the only time he has attempted 8 long balls per game (always with a 60%+ completion rate.) I have worries about how he is in the air as he has won 51% of all recorded aerial duels, but he is still a strong option for Arsenal to look at. CIES Football Observatory lists his market value at 10-15m euros but I think he will go for double that. I would look at how he progresses in the next few months before knowing if he is the perfect fit for Arsenal or not.
Central Midfield:
Arsenal needs a new central midfielder to either compete with Granit Xhaka and Thomas Partey in the 4-2-3-1 or to help Arsenal play a 4-3-3 soon. Luckily for Arsenal, there are a few names who have contracts that are running out by 2022 and they could be attainable if all goes well.
1. Lorenzo Pellegrini of Roma: This will be the hardest player to get because he is an Italian player happy in Italy, and chances are that he will re-sign with Roma soon. That being said, if there is a small chance for Arsenal to sign Lorenzo Pellegrini then they have to make a move for him.
Lorenzo Pellegrini is a central midfielder who can also play as an attacking midfielder in a 4-3-2-1 (which is what he does with Mkhitaryan at Roma.) His chance creation numbers have dropped this season as a result of the intensity drop all players have suffered from the covid era of football, but he is a great final third player to have. He can operate on both the left and right-hand side, which would help ease the dependency on Emile Smith Rowe as he doesn’t have to worry about being the only player that can play that role for Arsenal. His CIES value is set at 20-30m euros which Arsenal can pay if they convince the player.
2. Florian Grillitsch of Hoffenheim: Grillitsch is someone I have kept my eye on since 2018, and he’s a player that could do a good job deputizing for Granit Xhaka, Thomas Partey or even playing as the number 10 if needed. His CIES Market Value is set at 10-15m euro which is capped because of his current release clause (which is 20m euros.) Arsenal can look to get him for anything less than that which is a bargain in my eyes.
Florian Grillitsch is a solid alternative to Monchengladbach’s Florian Neuhaus, and he has a similar profile to him and Granit Xhaka. He is a progressive player who plays deep passes to help his team go from defense to attack. He averages over 2 shot-creating actions per 90 and 0.24 goal-creating actions per 90, which is great as he is secure on the ball (84.7% pass accuracy) and he attempts 9 long balls per game. One part of his game I like is that he can win aerial duels, and latch onto second balls frequently, similar to Xhaka and Partey, but a trait not shared by other midfield options at Arsenal. He is a good player and one that I would suggest Arsenal to buy if they don’t sign Dani Ceballos.
Centre-Forward:
The Centre-Forward position is where there is a lot of quality to be exploited, especially with experienced strikers that would do a great job at Arsenal. Belotti, Kramaric and Bamford have all accumulated good experience and they have all scored more than 10 league goals each.
1.Andrea Belotti of Torino: With his contract expiring in 2022 and the Italian media claiming that he will cost any prospective club 30 million euros to bring in, Belotti is the ideal player for any team looking to break into the Champions League again.
Belotti is one of the best goalscorers and creators in Italy, he has the most shot-creating action out of any forward that has played more than 15 league games (he’s 7th out of any that has played more than 10 games,) and that’s doing the business in a team that’s hanging on to avoid relegation, just like Jack Grealish did last season for Aston Villa. Arsenal should look at him, but they should approach him with caution as performing for a near-relegation standard team could also make the player look better than he is.
2. Andrej Kramaric of Hoffenheim: Another player from Hoffenheim, and a player I’ve kept my eye on since Reiss Nelson’s loan spell there in 2018. Kramaric is a strong option for any team to look at due to his consistency over the last few seasons. He’s one of the only players to have broken away from the ‘Nagelsmann curse’ (huge drop in numbers after Nagelsmann stops managing him,) so there is a player to look at. CIES Football Observatory values him at 10-15m euros but I think any prospective team would have to pay double for him.
Kramaric’s ball progression is incredible. Out of the traditional centre forwards, he ranks #2 in progressive distance carried and #1 in final third carries, Arsenal could utilise him in the Aubameyang wide forward role when needed, because he will get the ball to the final third, and he will contribute by shot-creating actions (he has 3.76 SCA p90 this season.) For the price Arsenal will end up paying, he will be a good option, but he is a risk as he’s turning 30 soon.
3. Patrick Bamford of Leeds: Bamford is an excellent CF, and his improvement in the last 18 month shows just that. He has 13 goals and 5 assists in 26 games, with one of the best pressing and ball retention numbers in Europe, a dream for any team to have. His contract expires in 2022, so he should be available for a cut-price if he does not renew with Leeds, which is where Arsenal come in.
Patrick Bamford does a lot of ‘defending’ in the final third, intending to win the ball back for his team and get shots on goal, that’s exactly what Arsenal miss at center-forward and they’ve missed out on 3-5 extra shots per game because they don’t have a player (bar Martinelli) who can press the opposition backline and win tackles as a result. The only question that arises is whether that’s down to Bielsa’s demands for a CF in his system, or if Bamford can put in that extra 25% for any other manager (if it’s the latter, then Arsenal should at least explore his situation and see what comes out from it.)
Last thoughts:
There are many opportunities for Arsenal to exploit at RB, CB, CM and CF, with most options I’ve suggested being possible upgrades or solid alternatives to who Arsenal can realistically attain in that position. For me, Arsenal should look at 3 of Montiel, Elvedi, Grillitsch and Bamford. They will save a lot of money for a new 10 or a world-class player in the position that they neglect.
Who do you think Arsenal should get in for their RB, CB, CM CF positions? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.
@RunReissRun