In July of 2017, Arsenal signed Alexandre Lacazette from Lyon. The deal was worth approximately £47 million, which was a club-record transfer fee at the time. Olivier Giroud had been fairly serviceable in his five years at Arsenal, but fans who wanted a quicker, more clinical player in front of goal believed they had finally gotten their wish. Lacazette’s time at Arsenal got off to a promising start, with him scoring in his Premier League debut against Leicester after 94 seconds, and he became the first Arsenal player in almost thirty years to score in his first three home league matches.
However, Lacazette’s time in north London has largely correlated with a gradual decline at the club. While there have been bright spots, such as last season’s FA Cup win, this season’s Community Shield victory, and his heartwarming bromance with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, the last few years cannot be considered a success for Arsenal. At the conclusion of the 2020-21 campaign, Lacazette will have one year remaining on his deal. According to reports, both the player and the club are open to parting ways in the summer.
Many Arsenal fans feel that Lacazette should be allowed to stay at the club, either through a contract extension or simply seeing out his current deal. The Frenchman’s demonstrated ability in both holdup and link-up play has won him many admirers among the Arsenal faithful. He currently is the Gunners’ second-highest scorer so far this season, with 11 goals in 31 appearances. He has also notched three assists. These skills and achievements have many convinced that he should remain in London.
However, Arsenal are entering a pivotal moment this summer. Arteta, Edu, and the rest of the club hierarchy must make the right decisions in order to bring the club back from midtable obscurity. Selling Lacazette while they still can is one such decision.
For starters, Lacazette simply has not been good enough in front of goal. According to Transfermarkt, he currently has 59 goals in 158 appearances for Arsenal. In contrast, Giroud finished with 105 goals in 253 matches. Presently, Lacazette sports a lower goals-to-games ratio than the man he was meant to replace.
While many appreciate Lacazette’s ability to serve as an offensive fulcrum (ironically, a task that Giroud excelled at), it seems to have recently resulted in the sacrifice of his goalscoring threat. According to BBC Sport, Lacazette is currently fourth in the team in attempted shots with 38 to his name, behind Aubameyang (50 shots), Nicolas Pepe (50), and Bukayo Saka (39). More immediately, Lacazette has now gone 271 minutes in all competitions without even attempting a non-penalty shot according to Scott Willis of Crab Stats. The Frenchman does not offer the volume of shots required for him to be the top-level goal threat Arsenal need.
This was likely an important factor in Lacazette’s loss of the starting center forward position to Aubameyang. While Aubameyang takes 2.13 shots per appearance in the Premier League and 2.67 per appearance in the Europa League, Lacazette only averages 1.30 and 1.25 respectively, according to Infogol. FBref has the Frenchman in the 18th percentile in terms of shots, while the man who has taken his place is in the 53rd percentile.
The numbers match what we see on the pitch. Lacazette often finds himself with his back to goal, and very rarely receives the ball in a position to shoot. Aubameyang’s displays at center forward have typically involved receiving the ball ahead of him at speed and seeing at least a few chances per game. And even though Lacazette has a much higher conversion rate than his teammate, it likely does not make up for how regularly he goes long periods without taking shots.
However, outside of an analysis of Lacazette’s goal threat, there is a much more practical reason why this summer is the right time for him to move on. By the time the summer transfer window opens, Arsenal’s No. 9 will be 30 years old. With Cedric (who will also be 30 at the start of next season), Aubameyang, and Willian all on long-term deals, giving a bumper contract to yet another player in the twilight of their career will leave Arsenal committed to several players who are likely on the verge of decline. Given that Arsenal are supposedly planning to overhaul their squad with the aim of competing at the top of the Premier League again, the wisdom of involving so many aging players in that process would surely have to be questioned. Arsenal cannot expect to challenge for honors in the most competitive league in the world while relying on a plethora of post-prime players.
Additionally, Arsenal are hemorrhaging money because of the financial landscape caused by the pandemic. Not only can the club not afford to give Lacazette the wages he would likely demand as part of his last big contract, but they also cannot afford for yet another player to ride out a lucrative deal before leaving on a free. In the last five years, Arsenal have missed out on £182.6 million in player sales, according to data released by BettingOdds.com. Such inability to cash in on players, to recoup value from their assets, has largely contributed to Arsenal being where they are now.
Based on measures the club have taken in the last year — convincing players to take wage cuts, announcing over 55 redundancies, and securing a loan of £120 million from the Bank of England — Arsenal almost certainly do not have a war chest to wield in the coming summer. New signings will likely have to be funded by player sales. And although Arsenal are likely to sell players such as Matteo Guendouzi, Lucas Torreira, Sead Kolasinac, Eddie Nketiah, and perhaps even Hector Bellerin, Arsenal would be very lucky to fetch enough from those departures to fund all the signings required for the squad to properly improve.
To that end, Lacazette is currently valued by Transfermarkt at approximately £27.8 million. Due to the fiscal impact of the pandemic, Arsenal are unlikely to get that amount for him. But with the likes of Roma, Juventus, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid all reportedly considering making offers, perhaps Edu and company can come closer than expected to earn that amount. In any case, Lacazette’s sale would bring Arsenal closer to the transfer kitty they need to upgrade the team in key areas.
Lacazette’s departure would also allow a younger player with hopefully a higher talent ceiling to serve as Aubameyang’s understudy. With the Gabonese striker currently 31 years old, his future after next season will be uncertain. That makes next season the time to begin bedding in a younger striker to take his place. Currently, Arsenal have Gabriel Martinelli on the books, and Arteta seems to view him as a center forward long-term. After using this season to recover from last year’s knee injury, next season looks to be an important one for the young Brazilian’s development. With Nketiah and Folarin Balogun likely to leave this summer, it would not be surprising to see Arsenal acquire another striker. In either case, both Martinelli and any new arrival in the striker department will need game time, and Lacazette’s continued stay in north London would effectively prevent that.
To be clear, Alexandre Lacazette is not a bad footballer. As much as he is a player Arsenal should move on from, he has been one of our more reliable contributors for the last few years. But to hold onto Lacazette now out of emotional attachment would be to deprive Arsenal of more efficiency in front of goal, much-needed transfer funds, and the opportunity to prepare a long-term successor to him and Aubameyang. It’s not personal, it’s just that all the right reasons are present to send him on his way.
Perhaps this is ruthless. But ruthlessness is what Arteta promised when he first took charge as Arsenal’s head coach. As we will likely come to see this summer, that occasionally means making tough decisions about players whom we may like or wish to give more chances. However, if the club takes actions like selling Lacazette this coming summer, perhaps Arsenal will once again become a team that is ruthless on the pitch.
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