One of the biggest what if’s from an Arsenal perspective in the last decade is what if Arsene Wenger and Dick Law’s £40,000,001 bid for Luis Suarez led to Arsenal making a follow-up offer to Liverpool, matching their asking price for the player, and how would they have done in the years following. I take a look at what led to this signing becoming a possibility, what would’ve happened IF Arsenal were able to get their man in Summer 2013 and how it would have continued for the following 3+ years.
Context:
Arsenal were looking for a striker to finally replace Robin Van Persie, someone to elevate them to another level in the footballing pyramid and at first, they were in for Gonzalo Higuain. With the player being close to a £23 million move to Arsenal at one point with his father speaking out at the start of July 2013, saying “I will soon be able to watch my son play in the Premier League.” That didn’t happen as Arsenal dithered, with Napoli snapping him up at the end of July 2013 and Arsenal then turned their attention to the next man on their list.
Luis Suarez was next on Arsenal’s list, and why wouldn’t he be? 33 G+A in 33 league games in 2012/13, (according to transfermarkt) Arsenal had every right to target him. They put in a £40,000,001 bid for him, which was rejected as Liverpool wanted above £50 million. Arsenal were crying out for him as it was a straightforward deal to do, both from a negotiation perspective (or so they hoped) and in terms of convincing the player who wanted out from Liverpool that summer. The problem surrounding Luis Suarez that season was his 10 game ban carrying on from the previous season due to Luis Suarez biting Branislav Ivanovic at the end of the 2012/13 season. He would’ve had 32 league games he could impact instead of 38 games in 2013/14, not that it would have mattered too much for Arsenal that season.
Luis Suarez’s interview is one that I remember reading around the time it was released. When he was asked about Arsenal, his answer was “my priority is Champions League football. This is about me doing what is right for my career at this moment in time.” This was set after Arsenal’s infamous £40,000,001 bid for him. So it was logical for Arsenal to make a new bid for the player, one that would’ve met Liverpool’s asking price for him, but Arsenal are rarely logical and they didn’t follow up with another bid. I’ll take a look at how that summer window would’ve ended if Arsenal signed Suarez for £50 million.
How would the Summer 2013 window pan out?
The Athletic claimed that Arsenal were looking to sign both Angel Di Maria & Karim Benzema in Summer 2013 before ending up with Mesut Özil. It made sense, Arsenal needed a new creative outlet & a new center-forward, which is why a lot of their big business that window being based around the pursuit of Higuain, Di Maria, Suarez, & Rooney. Players that were perfect for the club on paper. With The Athletic report in mind, Arsenal would’ve ended up with Luis Suarez/Angel Di Maria or Luis Suarez/Mesut Özil, with the latter being likelier. If I made a guess as to who Arsenal would’ve signed in Summer 2013. Luis Suarez, Mathieu Flamini, Emiliano Viviano & Mesut Özil all would’ve joined.
Arsenal were still in need of rotation options, which depend on the formation that Arsenal requires. In a 4-4-2, Arsenal still needed another center forward to deputize for Giroud/Suarez. In a 4-2-3-1, Arsenal would’ve required another creative option, and potentially a more natural wide midfielder as the game was evolving to go past the need of a wide midfielder without electric pace (barring a few exceptions.)
How would the season have played out?
One way Arsenal could’ve set up with Luis Suarez is in a 4-2-3-1 which would rely on the LW/AM to provide creativity directly to Suarez or to use Walcott to hit teams on the break.
A problem Arsenal would face is to do with how attack-minded their double pivot is. Arsenal should’ve invested in 2 CM’s who were strong defensively & capable of quickly getting the ball forwards to allow the front 4 to work together & create goal-scoring chances.
The 4-4-2 would’ve been better for Arsenal on a defensive front, but it would’ve stifled some of Arsenal’s creativity (and It would not have allowed Özil to thrive where he plays best) but it would’ve offered Arsenal balance. Luis Suarez would’ve played off Olivier Giroud, something that would’ve been similar to the Giroud-Griezmann dynamic that won France the World Cup in 2018.
Depth would still have been an issue. As Arsenal didn’t have a good quality backup in any of the named positions apart from the goalkeeper position, left-back & possibly central midfield (if you think that Santi/Ramsey could do well in one-off high-pressure games in a pivot.)
Arsene Wenger would’ve preferred the 4-2-3-1 as it would’ve allowed for Arsenal to rotate effectively between Ramsey/Santi/Mesut/Rosicky without causing much friction, and Olivier Giroud would’ve worked better as a backup for Luis Suarez, coming on near the end of every other game to keep Suarez fresh & provide crucial goals at the end of games.
Keeping in mind Arsenal were on top of the Premier League in 2013/14 for almost 6 months (I still don’t understand Arsenal’s collapse in big games and near the business end of the season,) Arsenal would’ve had a good chance at winning the league with Luis Suarez at the club.
Luis Suarez would’ve come into the Arsenal team on match week 6 when Arsenal were 2 points clear of Liverpool & they had 15 out of the 18 possible points secured. Assuming Luis Suarez would’ve needed 4 extra match weeks to get up to speed & ready for Arsenal, he would’ve come in fit & firing on matchday 10 when Arsenal were top of the league on 25 out of 30 points, 5 points clear of Chelsea & Liverpool coming off a 2-0 win at the Emirates against Liverpool. Looking at the data, Arsenal dropped from 1.89 goals per game in 2012/13 to 1.79 goals per game in 2013/14. Luis Suarez would’ve increased that to over 2 goals per game, enough for Arsenal to push themselves to a title push.
Luis Suarez would’ve helped drag Arsenal out of the tough November & February months where they need a goal scorer to get them an extra 10-15 points a season (which would’ve been enough for them to win the Premier League that season.) Although, I don’t see Arsenal winning the FA Cup that season, with a lot of Arsenal’s late FA Cup momentum coming from Arsenal’s ‘bottling’ of the league title that year.
The Champions League group stage that year would’ve been straightforward, If Arsenal had Luis Suarez in their team, Arsenal would’ve topped the group instead of finishing 2nd on goal difference, which would have resulted in Arsenal facing Zenit in the Round Of 16 instead of them facing Bayern Munich. With all due respect to Zenit, that game would’ve been easy for Arsenal to play as Arsenal would’ve had enough individual quality to bypass them. The quarter-final fixture that Dortmund had was against the eventual winners, Real Madrid when they went out 3-2 after losing the first leg 3-0 & won the second leg 2-0. With Lewandowski & Suarez at similar levels even back then, Arsenal would’ve suffered the same fate. That CL season would’ve helped Arsenal in the post-World Cup transfer market when Wenger/Gazidis did put more money down for the players they were looking to bring in
Long term Impact of the move:
I don’t see Alexis Sanchez joining Arsenal in summer 2014 if Luis Suarez joined Arsenal, as their priorities would’ve switched that summer. They would’ve looked to consolidate their current side (assuming Bacary Sagna re-signed due to ambition) by looking at buying supplementary players to support their strong core.
Arsenal bought Ospina, Chambers, Alexis, Debuchy, Gabriel & Welbeck in the Summer of 2014, spending ~£100 million that year. Looking back at who Arsene Wenger was looking to bring in that summer, with the assumption that most players would join Arsenal due to their PL success. With Alexis Sanchez not joining Arsenal, I would assume that the club would’ve activated their first option on Cesc Fabregas & bought him in to be their marquee signing, giving the team another player to get through the season whilst always being up for the challenge. They also would’ve signed Kostas Manolas to be the understudy to Koscielny/Mertesacker instead of Gabriel Paulista, replacing Thomas Vermaelen who left for ~£15m to Barcelona. As Bacary Sagna would extend, Debuchy would not join as a result. Arsenal still would’ve signed David Ospina after his world cup performances, as he was a cost-effective backup to Szczesny.
This would be the starting 11 of 2014/15. There would be ‘better’ depth to help Arsenal through a 50-60 game season, and due to the Premier League not being a battle of who has the best tactics until 2016, the individual quality of Arsenal’s front 5 would shine through in most games that season. There will always be doubts defensively, but Arsenal did concede under a goal a game in 2014/15 & 2015/16 with a worse midfield pairing, which may point to a good short-term future for Arsenal.
Arsenal would have been successful in the Luis Suarez cycle (2013/14-2015/16) with the club being well-positioned to do well in those 3 seasons, but the long-term future of the club is where I wouldn’t be so convinced. The change in summer 2016 from individual brilliance to systems that bring out the best of the team as a collective is a change that Arsene Wenger would NOT have been ready for. If Arsenal got in a manager committed to his system, like Brendan Rodgers/Pep Guardiola both were in 2016, then the success cycle could’ve extended up to 2019 at the very earliest. If Wenger remained, then the team would go into freefall due to teams knowing how to shut out Arsenal, and Arsenal’s drop-off in recruitment post-2016.
Last thoughts:
I take an optimistic approach when looking at what life would be like if Arsenal signed Luis Suarez in 2013, with Arsenal doing well as he would fill in a quality gap, and he would be the perfect striker for Arsene Wenger to get his hands on.