Arsenal currently have five players in their squad with the ability to play as the centre-forward, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Gabriel Martinelli, Eddie Nketiah, Alexandre Lacazette, and Folarin Balogun, who between themselves have played 1930 minutes and scored a total of 6 goals – that’s 0.28 goals per 90. Even considering they all haven’t played at centre-forward at all times the return has been simply underwhelming.
All the data mentioned in the article is for the Premier League season 2021/22 and in per 90 form.
It is harsh to make Balogun and Nketiah part of the conversation given they have only played a combined 102 minutes. But the latter will reappear in the article when we discuss potential solutions to our centre-forward issues.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has utterly underperformed in recent times after a bright start to the campaign, for a player who is amongst the best strikers of the last decade he simply isn’t doing enough for his side. 4 goals in 11.2 90s for an xG of 5.8 (and 4.1 non-penalty xG) in the Premier League is a diabolical return for any side’s leading striker let alone a side aiming to make it to the top 4.
While Aubameyang has accumulated decent xG numbers, his conversion rate has simply been below par.
While his hold-up play and build-up involvement has improved since the season, the truth is it still isn’t good enough to justify his selection in the side. This is why I feel Mikel Arteta was right to drop him to the bench against Everton. But the options on the bench don’t really help out Arteta. A past-his-prime Alex Lacazette and an impressive yet inexperienced Eddie Nketiah couldn’t get the job done for his side against the Toffees.
In the past 365 days, Alex Lacazette is ranking amongst the bottom 42% forwards for touches in the attacking 3rd. He simply can’t get behind the defensive line enough with his pace, resulting in him operating more in the No.10 zone to make up for his lack of final action contribution. And while he has done a fine job when played as a 10, that doesn’t hide the fact that he can’t play as a lone centre-forward anymore in Arsenal’s system. Even in the last 365 days, Lacazette has ranked amongst the bottom 31% forwards for non-penalty xG registered per 90.
He can still work as a centre-forward in a system like Liverpool’s, infact I think he’ll excel in that team having players like Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah to feed in. But in Arsenal’s setup, there are no genuine inside-forwards on the wings and it becomes even more essential to have a player with a presence in the opposition penalty box.
Lacazette has been decent with his conversion but hasn’t got himself in scoring often enough as represented by his low xG numbers, which also includes xG due to penalties.
For as good as Gabi is, his link-up play isn’t par for Arsenal’s centre-forward role.
Eddie Nketiah wouldn’t have been near this conversation last season as he simply wasn’t good enough to lead the line for Arsenal. But this season, ever since the pre-season games he has shown different dimensions to his game. He can pull wide and make an inverted run into the box, drop in the midfield and link-up the play, run at defenses with great control, and be the poacher he has always been when arriving in the box. He missed a crucial chance against Everton to save points for Arsenal but given he has only played 32 minutes of Premier League football this season, that shouldn’t be the moment he’s judged upon.
I’m keeping Folarin Balogun out of the discussion as he’s clearly on his way out on loan in the January window.
So who should play centre-forward for Arsenal you ask, I think there’s really not a correct answer to this. We simply don’t have what we require. But to put out a wild suggestion, I for one think if Arteta changes his system, a duo of Gabriel Martinelli and Alex Lacazette could work in a 4-4-2. Now I don’t have statistical or visual proof of it as the duo have never played together in a front two, but given their complimentary profiles, I do think it’s an idea that is worth a shot if our goal-scoring woes continue.
If Arteta decides to continue with the same system, and that’s really the most likely outcome, Arsenal have to keep patience with their captain or trust a rookie. When considering current form and their individual goal-scoring record, Aubameyang is still the best of the rest. But if can exclude parameters like experience and goal-scoring record at the top level, Eddie Nketiah is Mikel Arteta’s best bet, he is the most equipped amongst the rest to be Arsenal’s leading man in the current setup. And I won’t be surprised to see him starting in the next match if Arteta continues to drop Aubameyang on the bench.
Though regardless of whom the Arsenal manager chooses, it’ll either be a player past his prime whose place might be in question come the summer or a rookie who is likely leaving in six months, it’s quite clear Arsenal need another striker in the summer transfer window.