It is common knowledge that, following Martin Odegaard’s return to Madrid, Arsenal is in the market for a creative midfielder this summer. There have been a number of players linked with the club; however, Leicester’s James Maddison has seemed the most audacious.
But, news broke (by the reputable AFCBell) that Arsenal is indeed in for the exciting Maddison.
Supposedly, the club has indicated to Maddison’s camp that he is their major target for the summer and that they would be prepared to double his current wages.
However, if you believe French outlet le10sport, Arsenal have recently bid for Lyon’s Houssem Aouar. You would imagine though that Arsenal would be unlikely to sign both players – therefore, raising the question of which of the two should be brought to the Emirates?
To begin with, it is important to define the role that Arteta will ask of them. It is reasonable to envisage that they would either be fighting, with the supremely talented Emile Smith-Rowe, for the CAM spot, in a 4-2-3-1 (which was regularly used last year); or shall be tasked with being a creative number 8 in a 4-3-3. Aouar and Maddison can play in these positions effectively but would bring different skill-sets to the current squad.
If Arteta is after more goals from midfield – as he should be following the dismal amount scored by all Arsenal’s midfielders last season, 5 in the league – then Maddison is his man. Last season the former Norwich City player had a non-penalty goal rate of 0.34 per 90, scoring 8 goals, all statistics provided by fbref.com.
This number is not only far greater than those in Arsenal’s squad last year (ESR 0.12 and Odegaard 0.08); but, superior to that of midfield goal-scoring supremo Bruno Fernandes’ 0.26. Crucially, it is better than Aouar’s 0.25.
Statistically, there is a telling difference in quality between the two’s shooting abilities. Maddison outscored his expected goals last season by +3.6, demonstrating his capability to score unlikely chances. Whereas, Aouar disappointed in this department. His expected goals for last season were 10.3, however, he unperformed by 3.3.
Perhaps Maddison’s total exceeded expectations due to his free-kick abilities. This though would be a huge plus for Arsenal, as the team has lacked a threat from set-pieces since the departure of Santi Cazorla.
Another area in which Arsenal frustrated last season was the number of chances they produced for the likes of Aubameyang and co. Thus, it would be expected that whoever was brought in would excel in chance creation. This is where Aouar comes into his own. He created 5.10 chances per 90, greater than Maddison’s 4.50.
Moreover, these shots creating actions came primarily from open play. Aouar utilises his dribbling skills to create, compared to Maddison’s prowess on set-pieces. Strikingly, Aouar achieved a goal creating action 0.71 times per 90; much higher than Maddison’s 0.47 – showing that Aouar is more gifted perhaps at producing superior final balls.
Although, not demonstrated by the number of assists each achieved. Aouar’s 3 to Maddison’s 5 possibly exhibiting Leicester’s better sharpness in front of goal compared to Lyon’s.
Finally, if either one is going to succeed in an Arteta time they are going to have to work hard, with an appetite to defend from the front. This is often portrayed by the number of successful pressures completed. The number for each is rather similar, 27.3% for Maddison and 29.7% for Aouar.
However, the numbers show that the Leicester player is greater in the tackle. Successfully tackling 32.1% of dribblers, compared to Aouar’s rate of 23.1%.
Feasibly, showing that Maddison would be more confident being part of midfield three if Arteta decides to employ his, seemingly, favoured 4-3-3.
Overall, my preference would be Maddison. The reasoning for this is that he is premier league proven and is more of a goal threat. Also, his dead-ball capabilities, and the fact he would count towards our home-grown quota, are factors that raise him above Aouar.
However, if the fees being branded around for the players are true – £60+ million for Maddison, compared to the £20-25 million required to sign Aouar (due to Ligue 1’s financial woes) – then this is a consideration that requires serious attention. As the saved difference, if you were to go for the Frenchman, could be put towards upgrading one of the infinite other positions in need of improvement.
Which of the two, if either, would you want to see at the Emirates next season?
– By Cameron Emanuel-Burns (@camemanuelburns)