Unless you’ve been living under a rock, chances are you’ve heard this stat: From Emile Smith Rowe’s debut on Boxing Day 2020 until the end of last season, Arsenal were second in the Premier League in total points. They were also T-3rd in Goals Scored, and 2nd in Goals Conceded.
Why do we reference Boxing Day? For one, it was the day the struggling club toppled favorites Chelsea, always a satisfying result. But the main reasons is that it was the debut of Emile Smith Rowe.
In many ways, “The Smith” has spent part of the past couple of seasons in other players’ shadow. Whether it was Bukayo Saka steamrolling his way into the starting XI and England National Team, or Gabriel Martinelli’s surprising star turn after being plucked from Brazilian obscurity, there was always another attacking player grabbing more attention.
But when Mikel Arteta inserted ESR into the 10 role, things changed. Emile emerged as a key cog for the club. And the tables turned on the season, which unfortunately was too far gone to rescue a European place.
Arsenal fans could see the effect Smith Rowe had on the squad. But outsiders were likely to notice what Smith Rowe wasn’t contributing. He only scored two goals in 16 games’ worth of action. His four assists was better, but still not incredible. More output was required to vault him into the Saka-Greenwood-Foden discussion for the best young player in the league.
Looking further into his stats, many areas were ready for improvement. His progressive passing was average for an attacking midfielder, as were key passes, shot-creating actions, successful pressures and more. His dribbling was almost nonexistent, but he did rank highly in ball security.
Awarding him the legendary No. 10 shirt, then, felt to some like more of a bet on the player’s potential than an actual reward for his accomplishments. And Emile would need to take a “leap” to the next level, not only for himself and the number 10, but for Arsenal to reach its ambitions.
Nine games into the season, I’m here to tell you there’s every sign that Emile Smith Rowe has made the leap.
Consider Emile’s radar chart. Even a glance at the red and the white tells you that he’s doing better this season. But here’s additional context: Of the 19 categories I’ve built into my Attacking Midfielder “template,” Smith Rowe is doing better this season in all but three: Expected Assists, Miscontrols and Dispossessions. In some areas, he’s exceeding himself in an almost comical fashion: For example, he averaged just 0.44 dribbles per 90 minutes last season, at a 24.1% success rate. This year? 2.38 dribbles per 90, 76% rate. And while 9 games isn’t a large sample size, it’s worth noting that ESR would have to fail at his next 50+ dribbles to return to 24% territory. (He averages about three attempts per 90 minutes.)
Smith Rowe has literally become one of the most prolific dribblers in the Premier League. After Matchweek 9, only Adama Traore, Allan Saint-Maximin and Paul Pogba had completed more dribbles than Emile Smith Rowe. Only Traore from that group is successful more often (78.7%), and none of those players is younger than 24.
The Smith, it could be said, has emerged as a ball carrying wonderkid. His 29 carries into the final third are joint-second to only ASM. His 10 carries into the penalty area are T-12th. He’s fifth in total progressive carrying distance among wingers and attacking midfielders, behind only ASM, Grealish, Traore and Ismaila Sarr. Again, only Sarr comes close to ESR in age, and even he’s two years older.
One amazing thing about ESR is that he doesn’t just make a ton of carries for Arsenal: He’s one of the most secure players with the ball on the team. Smith Rowe’s 1.88 miscontrols per 90 is less than half of Nicolas Pepe’s average this season. His 1.63 dispossessions per 90 is bested by only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (0.59) among attackers on the club.
To demonstrate his rare combination of ball carrying and ball security, consider the following:
This chart shows the 20 players with the most dribbles completed per 90 minutes in the Premier League (minimum: 450 minutes played). To even be on the chart, you have to win a lot of dribbles.
So what’s it showing? Players to the left have fewer overall turnovers (miscontrols + dispossessions). Players higher up successfully dribble more often.
If you treat “up and to the left” as the goal, it can be argued that as things stand, there isn’t a more secure high-volume dribbler in the league than ESR. And for what it’s worth: Smith-Rowe has completed the sixth-most dribbles in the league, so it’s not like all these other guys are dribbling way more.
Another way to compare these players is by how well they’re progressing the ball. Take a look at the above, where the same 20 players (the top dribblers) are now sorted by Dribble Success Rate (y) and Carries into the Final Third/90 (x). ESR is t-2nd overall at carrying into the final third, to only Saint-Maximin.
These numbers are all impressive. But to an outside fan, particularly a relatively casual one, it’ll always be about the goal and assist output. So from that perspective, the ESR leap is even more satisfying.
Smith Rowe’s breakaway goal against Villa was his second in league play this season, matching his total from a year ago. His two assists are halfway to his total from last season. With his minutes almost exactly half those from last year, there’s reason to believe ESR’s G+A output is well on its way to a mark well above last year’s six, assuming health on his part.
So what else can Smith Rowe do to ensure his leap? Creating more chances is a start. His key passes last year, as well as his shot-creating actions, were around an average to slightly-above-average attacking midfielder’s mark. That’s obviously not bad when you’re only 21, but it’s an area where I’d love to see more. ESR’s got 12 key passes so far, halfway to his 24 from last year, while his frequency has remained consistent at 1.5 key passes per 90 minutes.
It’s a similar story for SCA: 2.69 per 90 last year, up to 3.14 per 90 this year. That’s a good sign, and I’d love to see even more. His 7 against Villa were a wonderful start.
If Arsenal are going to challenge for a European spot or more, we’ll need all we can get from The Smith. He’s chosen an ideal time to make a leap.