In 2019, Arsenal were looking for a new winger to fill the gap left by the loss of Alexis Sanchez & Theo Walcott in that position back in January 2018. They were linked with 10s of wingers, with David Neres, Nicolas Pepe (who they ended up signing,) Ryan Fraser & Wilfried Zaha being some of the most prominent links. I look at an alternative reality where Arsenal end up signing Wilfried Zaha instead of Nicolas Pepe & what it would’ve meant for Arsenal in the long term afterwards.
Context:
In the aftermath of Arsenal’s 4-1 defeat to Chelsea in Baku, Wilfried Zaha’s brother went to Sky Sports on the 1st of July 2019 to beg for Wilfried Zaha to go to Arsenal. This was when Arsenal offered £40m for Wilfried Zaha, which was rejected as Crystal Palace held out for more, and there was constant talk of a new bid with players + cash which never came to fruition. Eventually, Arsenal gave up on their pursuit of Wilfried Zaha & they swiftly signed Nicolas Pepe at the end of July/Start of August in 2019.
Since Unai Emery got sacked by Arsenal, he has spoken out about why he wanted Wilfried Zaha, and how he met the player during that summer to convince him that a move to Arsenal was the right one for him, not that he needed any convincing. But What If: Arsenal signed Wilfried Zaha in 2019. What If they paid Crystal Palace’s asking price for the player?
How would summer 2019 have panned out?
Arsenal spent £144m in the summer of 2019 on 6 players.
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Nicolas Pépé – Lille – £72m
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William Saliba – Nice – £27m
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Kieran Tierney – Celtic – £24.3m
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David Luiz – Chelsea – £7.83m
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Gabriel Martinelli – Ituano – £6m
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Dani Ceballos – Real Madrid – Loan
The payment structure for most of those deals means that even if Arsenal paid a lot upfront for Wilfried Zaha, those deals would still end up happening. William Saliba was paid off in instalments, which means any deal for him isn’t dependent on Zaha joining Arsenal. Kieran Tierney & David Luiz were paid in larger fees, but with Arsenal making £50m+ bids for Dayot Upamecano at the end of the Summer 2019 window, It’s right to assume that Arsenal would’ve had the funds to sign most of those players.
As Arsenal had huge bids for Dayot Upamecano rejected in the window, signing Wilfried Zaha would’ve forced Arsenal to be more risk-averse with who they’d end up signing as it was reported that they banked on Arsenal making the CL for summer 2021 for them to make the big signings that they did. Wilfried Zaha, William Saliba, Kieran Tierney, David Luiz, Gabriel Martinelli & Dani Ceballos would’ve joined Arsenal in the Summer of 2019 as a result of the financial guarantees that would’ve been afforded to the club after Kroenke’s full takeover.
How would Arsenal have lined up?
This 4-2-3-1 has been Arsenal’s most commonly used formation, with its usage being mainly before lockdown. Wilfried Zaha is tasked with dominating the right flank (an unfamiliar position for him,) but Zaha’s instinct to drop deep & help build/progress play, coupled with a CF & RB that will look to get him into the game will help him adapt to the right-hand side quickly.
The problem with Zaha in the 4-2-3-1 is that Arsenal will be easier to beat. Cut out the passing lanes to Wilfried Zaha, get Aubameyang on the ball & teams will bypass any trouble with ease.
The 3-4-3 is Arsenal’s ‘safety net’ formation & the one that was used post-lockdown after Pablo Mari & Bernd Leno’s injury. This relies on numerical superiority when defending to make it harder for teams to bypass them and quick transitions to attack to fashion goalscoring chances.
Wilfried Zaha would have less defending to do compared to the 4-2-3-1, and as Lacazette drops deep to play as a #9.5/false 10, he can link up with the RWB & Lacazette to help his ball progression. The change here is Aubameyang’s availability in a more central region & Bukayo Saka offering a left-footed option to get the ball to as he can cross it into the box instead of needing to cut in & get a shot away.
How would the domestic season pan out?
The first half of the season (up until Unai Emery’s sacking) was underwhelming with Arsenal being a bottom half side looking at their xPoints. Nicolas Pépé was rushed into the Arsenal side after Alex Lacazette’s injury at the start of September (Unai Emery wanted to slowly integrate Pépé into the starting 11.)
Wilfried Zaha’s adaptation time is minimal as he’s used to the Premier League & the only drastic change he would experience is the change in manager (Hodgson is stylistically different to Mikel Arteta.)
When Mikel Arteta took over Arsenal (up until the lockdown period,) they were a hard team to beat (1 loss) but they didn’t have the cutting edge to win games which is why they drew 6 times in 11 games.
Arsenal needed game-changers. Players that can take the game by the scruff of its neck & create high volume chances or score goals for the club when they’re in a stalemate. Wilfried Zaha is the perfect player to have in that situation. He had recorded 3.95 Shot-Creating Actions in 2017/18 & 4.21 Shot-Creating Actions in 2018/19. The signs show that Zaha would’ve maintained that SCA creation rate at Arsenal & which would’ve seen Arsenal win at least 2-3 extra games that they have drawn. 20-24 points would’ve put Arsenal in the top 3-4.
In the post-lockdown period, Arsenal wanted to play a 4-3-3, but injuries to Pablo Mari & Bernd Leno forced them to play a 3-4-3, sacrificing chance creation for defensive control (hence the poor underlying numbers.) It led to Arsenal winning the FA Cup as well as them maintaining their position in the Premier League.
Arsenal had too many games where they would end up losing by small margins, there’s no assurance that the player will get his team to win the games, but if Arsenal had Zaha domestically instead of Nico Pépé, Zaha’s deep progression & high volume chance creation would spark Arsenal to life when they’re collectively dejected or demotivated.
Mid-term Impact of the move:
Wilfried Zaha to Arsenal would’ve meant that Arsenal would’ve done better in the short term. They wouldn’t have won the FA Cup as that was won due to the media doubting Nicolas Pepe for a lot of 2019/20, but Arsenal would’ve settled in the Champions League places which would make the Summer 2020 window better from an Arsenal perspective.
Arsenal wanted 3 central midfielders, a new CB, a new winger, a new GK to replace Emi Martinez. When they made the Europa League in 2020, they signed Thomas Partey, Dani Ceballos (loan), Gabriel Magalhães, Willian, and Alex Runarsson. Getting Champions League football would’ve made it easier to sign Houssem Aouar alongside Thomas Partey & Dani Ceballos. Instead of signing Willian, they would’ve ended up with Gabriel Veron of Palmeiras (as he was linked heavily before Arsenal signed Willian.) Gabriel Magalhães would’ve joined Arsenal as he was the only left-footed LCB available as Man City signed Nathan Ake & Mykola Matviyenko of Shakhtar was overlooked. Finally, they would’ve ended up with Brentford’s David Raya instead of Alex Runarsson as the funds would be made available to sign him.
The Summer 2020 Transfer window would’ve looked like this:
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Thomas Partey
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Dani Ceballos (Loan)
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Houssem Aouar
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Gabriel Veron
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Gabriel Magalhães
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David Raya
Mikel Arteta has spoken about his desire to transition to the 4-3-3 on multiple occasions. Their hypothetical summer signings would allow them to play a 4-3-3 that’s akin to the one played by Italy under Roberto Mancini. Wilfried Zaha would receive additional support on the right-hand side with Thomas Partey & Granit Xhaka both being good at playing line-breaking passes out to him, despite Zaha being isolated in this setup.
Last Thoughts:
Wilfried Zaha would’ve been a great addition for Arsenal in 2019, and his (lack of) adaptation period would’ve made Arsenal gel quicker, possibly stopping Arsenal from switching managers midway through 2019/20 & possibly helping Arsenal finish top 4 in the Premier League last season. Arsenal would’ve signed better players in the Summer 2020 window as a result of it, but this is just a positive way to look at the state of affairs at Arsenal if this happened.