Why am I writing about Newcastle United on an Arsenal website? Because when the takeover of the club was announced on the 7th October, an after shock rumbled through the Arsenal supporter base. With seemingly incalculable wealth, would Newcastle United rise to become the dominant, omnipresent force of the Premier League, thus shutting the door firmly to Arsenal in the race for a top 4? Would they simply come knocking for our talent and suck us dry, forcing us into becoming a selling club?
The answer is no. No they won’t.
Newcastle United, as I touched on in my previous blog, have joined a party that has moved on. They stand alone in the club, surrounded by empty champaign flutes, fallen balloons and half finished cake. Alone. A sad analogy, but clearly the hero’s welcome the new owners expected didn’t last long in the clubs defeat to Tottenham (embarrassing, seeing as Tottenham get battered everywhere they go) and then to Chelsea a week later. The immediate hangover began for the new owners. The club inching towards the exit door with the bouncers ready to throw the club into the back alley trash bin of The Championship (absolutely no disrespect to The Championship here, I am simply extending my ridiculous metaphor for the sake of illustration).
It’s the classic case of expectation versus reality. The problem is, however, that the more superclubs emerge in the Premier League, the less dominant any one of them becomes. If we consider Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United (for now at least) and a supercharged Newcastle United all in competition; they can’t take maximum points from each other, they can’t all win the Premier League, the FA Cup, the League Cup or the Champions League. They will drop points against so-called lesser clubs, who are becoming less “lesser” with every passing season.
I personally think Newcastle United are a big club. Maybe it’s nostalgia for seeing the great Sir Bobby Robson in his black coat on the touchline of a misty St James Park as the club play a Champions League fixture. They have a great stadium, a passionate and deserving supporter base and a long, rich footballing history. I can see why the club were an acquisition target. A great club. Newcastle United endured years of stale ownership under Mike Ashley (which doesn’t help the argument for fan ownership, as he was both a fan and a Billionaire) so who can begrudge the club being in receipt of serious investment?
However, it’s the source of the investment which is the problem.
The club was acquired by a consortium consisting of PCP Capital Partners (PCP), the Reuben Brothers (RB) and the Public Investment Fund (PIF) of Saudi Arabia. PCP was founded in 2005 by Amanda Staveley, whose humble beginnings were as a restaurant owner, frequented by associates of the Godolphin Racing stables, owned by the Al Maktoum family of Dubai. This being the same Godolphin stables at the centre of a horse doping scandal in 2013. Staveley used her connections to become a businesswomen of renown and eventually founded PCP (based in Dubai) and were involved in the takeover of Manchester City for £210m by Sheikh Mansour in 2008 – funded by oil money from a state with questionable morals and ethics. RB are fairly standard property investors – so no more needs saying. That’s when we come to PIF…
PIF is the sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia. Sovereign wealth funds aren’t uncommon and are used to channel the wealth of a state into various financial investments. However, PIF are renowned for being one of the least transparent sovereign wealth funds in the world…make of that what you will. PIF’s Chairman is Mohammad bin Salman who is also is the crown prince, deputy prime minister, and minister of defense of Saudi Arabia. However, Amanda Staveley would have us believe that Saudi Arabia (via Mohammad bin Salman) has NO CONTROL over Newcastle United…none whatsoever…nada….nil.
It’s a case of: “are you going to believe what you see or what I tell you?”. This is probably the best example of how football executives consider football supporters; idiots who should just give them their money and don’t ask questions. Being told the European Super League would “save football” is one thing, but the above goes beyond an insult. So its very clear to anyone who isn’t an amoeba, that Newcastle United are owned and controlled by Saudi Arabia and thus are now linked to the activities of the state itself – follow this link to find out what these are:
https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/middle-east-and-north-africa/saudi-arabia/report-saudi-arabia/
I won’t go into detail, but it ain’t good. Newcastle United fans may, rightly, question the morals and ethics of other clubs (including Arsenal). On the one hand, they would be right, as Rwanda, for example, has an infamous past, while “The Emirates” also has various negative connotations. However, on the other, there are few countries who wear their dishonour and horrific misdeeds with such a thin veil as does Saudi Arabia. Any Newcastle United fan who is also a member of the LBGTQ+ community would not be treated well if they ever visited the country. Any outspoken critic would not be treated well (Jamal Khashoggi…) either.
So how do Newcastle United supporters reconcile this? The answer is, they cannot. While we Arsenal supporters can always use the “you bought your trophies” trump card with many oil clubs, in the case of Newcastle United, it goes deeper into the unsavoury. How much of the same money used to finance the club has also been used to start conflicts, silence dissidents, imprison enemies of the state, fund immoral practice etc? No one can know, but we can guess.
As I have said above, Newcastle United are now in a hugely challenging position. Going the wrong direction in the table, a “mixed bag” of a playing squad (many of whom know their days are numbered), restricted by FFP rules, a tainted ownership and restless support base. What is needed is careful and considered planning by the owners – which I am skeptical they will be able to do. It will be too much for them to not dump millions on the transfer market to buy their way out of trouble and up the table. But who would go? In short: mercenaries. Not players who care about Newcastle United, players who care about the paycheck. Unai Emery wasn’t interested, so now Eddie Howe looks like the next manager. Was Antonio Conte asked? I struggle to believe he wasn’t, and thus struggle to believe he didn’t pass on the chance…if so, then I wonder why…
Newcastle United are in danger of becoming a poison chalice. What do the supporters do? Well it isn’t the supporters fault. They wanted Mike Ashley out first and foremost (and who could blame them?), but now it seems in doing so, a worse owner has come along. If I were a Newcastle United supporter, I would support the players and the manager. Its not their fault who owns their club. It’s the FA, who were bamboozled by the sheer sums of money being flashed around and clearly waved the takeover through with very few questions asked.
So. Why am I going on about Newcastle United? Because this is the essence of the cautionary tale. Be careful what you wish for.
The Kroenke’s are not perfect owners. Their desire to allow the club to be run by the management without their interference has, understandably, been seen as indifference. “Silent” Stan and Josh have other concerns that take up their time, however there is a fine line between arms-length ownership and absenteeism. We have seen more communication from them, more presence and more funding (more obvious signs of funding that is). But if we really think about it, if the Kroenke’s put Arsenal on the market (so to speak), who would buy the club? To afford the £2-£3bn you would need, you would either have to be a Billionaire in your own right, be a Nation State or a consortium of wealthy people or with access to debt funding. To be honest, none of the above is appealing.
Daniel Ek, the Spotify Billionaire, is estimated to be worth €4.9bn however that isn’t all cash. This will largely be stock in Spotify (approx. 9%, its value subject to and at the mercy of the stock market) and other holdings. Little to none of it liquid. My guess? The club would be bought via a consortium of corporate financiers (a la Manchester United) led by Daniel Ek and then immediately floated on the stock exchange (thereby using funds from shareholders to repay the debt used to buy the club in the first place). The clubs value would then be linked to the share price: volatile. If further funds were required, further share issues would dilute existing shareholders – so if you are lucky to own a share in the club, it’s value would reduce. Not a fan.
The Kroenke’s offer us stability and security. I appreciate these aren’t exactly sexy traits to have in an owner, however this is grossly undervalued as in a covid-19 impacted world, lack of European football and low placing in the league, the Kroenke’s act as a safety net while the club develops the squad as it is currently. They won’t fund marquee signings with debt, a silly gamble which personally I don’t want. I would prefer the players who played for the club do so because they want to, not because of the pay packet. I would prefer we develop our youth, which doesn’t need Billionaire financing. I would prefer we buy young players we can sell on if things don’t work out. I would prefer a long-term approach and not the boom and bust of other clubs.
As I have written before, Arsenal is on the right path to success. The alternative (such as Newcastle United) is not one we should countenance lest we regret what we wished for.
PS. A quick word on our friend, Romalu Lukaku. He currently has a grand total of 4 goals in 11 games in all competitions (with two against Aston Villa). He signed for approx. £104m in the summer transfer window. He earns £196k after tax per week. That’s currently £26.6m per goal. What a return on investment that is (!). He said his performance against Arsenal (the 2-0 win on the 22nd August) was “dominant”…shame (contrary to popular opinion) he didn’t have the staying power as some of us predicted (see my blog dated: 22nd August). That’s the kind of waste of resources we should avoid like the plague.
Newcastle United: A Cautionary Tale
