There two truisms concerning football which I believe are often overlooked; (1) it is a game of eleven men versus eleven men, (2) transfer value is not indicative of quality. Yes, football is now dominated by super-rich clubs who spray money at their team in an attempt to become the supremacy in their respective leagues. Yes, football is not about patient squad building, its results, results, and results. Now.
Mikel Arteta has enjoyed a good run of success since the summer transfer window. Beforehand, the woeful performances against Brentford (an outlier for many reasons), Manchester City, and Chelsea led to many calling for his immediate removal, fearful the club were heading further into mid/lower table oblivion (“we finished 8th two seasons in a row!”). Arteta made several transfers (committing more transfer funds than other clubs in the most recent window, fully supported by the Kroenke’s) and since then we can say (well most of us with two eyes and a brain) that the club has enjoyed a “good” run of games, culminating in a very convincing win against Leicester City at the weekend. Some performances have been better than others, of course, but we haven’t lost a game and (in the very least) proven this squad is developing some steel in defence if our attach remains a little inconsistent.
As others and I have written, this has always been the plan – the much-maligned “process”. I am not using the lens of hindsight here; you can easily read my previous articles. However, equally I am not saying “I told you so” either. Mikel Arteta (as he has recently said himself) has done some good things but at the same time, the team have done “nothing”. Clearly, the squad are stronger for the additions made in the summer, but we haven’t won anything and our current position (6th at time of writing) is somewhere we now need to stay. This will not be easy.
Arsenal is on a proven path to success. Why? Because what we are now doing as a club has been done before. Manchester United had the “Class of 92”, Barcelona enjoyed prolonged success with a backbone of youth from the La Masia Academy, Borussia Dortmund continue to create a long production line of talent. A squad built from a core of talent who (first and foremost) want to play for the club, know each other, have talent and a willingness to learn and have fully bought into the Managers plans and methods is a squad that will, eventually, convert these traits into success. The seeds of this we are now seeing at Arsenal.
Yes, the “Oil Money” clubs have achieved success from ploughing vast sums into their clubs from the ownership; however, this really is not a long-term, sustainable plan. That said, kudos should be given to Manchester City and Chelsea who have at least now settled on a viable business model, which is yielding good business and footballing performances. Manchester United have Ole at the wheel (still) – so there are exceptions I guess…However, while I have cited Chelsea and Manchester City for settling on (almost) viable business models, they both still (1) spend beyond their means from time to time (means being outside the normal cash flow of the club) and (2) they are both powerful clubs, so the idea their vast wealth leads to total dominance, ironically, does not.
However, we need not fear the Oil Clubs. Just because they have serious financial might, far greater than Arsenal, it is no reason for us to fret that we may be pushed out of the Top 6 (by that I mean the Champions/Europa League spots).
Having vast sums of money is nice. But spending it, deploying it, is a very different venture. As I said above, transfer value is no indicator of quality. Dropping a king’s ransom on a single player does not mean they will instantly perform, instantly score goals, settle into the team, settle into the surrounding area, or (most definitely) recoup the outlay spent on them in prize money and silverware.
Talented players can be found and signed for reasonable transfer values the likes of which Arsenal can sustain. We just need to continue using data analytics aligned to a good scouting network to find them. Before the summer, did you personally know of any of the players we signed? Maybe one or two? But all of them? How many Arsenal fans scoffed and complained at the transfer of Aaron Ramsdale? How many are still complaining now? What we paid Sheffield United seems like a steal now. How many ignorant Sky News pundits laughed at the transfer of Takehiro Tomiyasu, saying his agent was touting him around European clubs with Arsenal signing him in a desperate roll of the dice (*coughKavehSolhekolcough”). I wonder what their “considered” opinion is now. He would walk into any Premier League team.
Take Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith Rowe. Hale End graduates. The very cream of English footballing talent. How much did these players cost to develop into first team regulars? I would hazard maybe £2m to get them to the first team where they are now worth 100x that sum together. We have exciting up-and-coming players such as Charlie Patino and Miguel Azeez who are on the verge of being promoted to the first team. The production line continues.
How about the larger outlays? Martin Odegaard at £35m, Ben(jamin) White £58.5m, Aaron Ramsdale £28m, Gabriel £26m, William Saliba £30m, and Kieran Tierney £27m. What do these transfers have in common? They are all the younger side of 20 (or younger), have a longer shelf-life and can be sold on for more if needs be. Investment in the future, as well as now.
Of course, the squad is very new and continues to gel and coalesce. The next game at Liverpool will be a serious test, but I am not expecting the same performance against Leicester. Liverpool are where we will be if we continue on this path. They have proven you do not need Oil Money to build an effective squad. A good coach, youth, and intelligent acquisitions can easily counter unlimited transfer budgets. Yes, Mikel is no Jurgen, yet. Arteta has proven he is a man with a plan and a style of play; he just needed the players to execute it. In time, he will prove himself. It took Klopp a number of seasons to win the Premier League and Champions League – beforehand Liverpool were also in and out of the top 6 over many years. Arteta could still fail and we move to another manager. However, if he succeeds with “The Process”, Arsenal will be in very good shape.
Take Newcastle United. I recently heard an interesting analogy; Arsenal are like a person standing outside a fancy restaurant, looking in on Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool enjoying themselves and now Newcastle United are standing in the lobby, waiting to be let in. Arsenal very much excluded from the club.
Amusing, but in reality Newcastle United have arrived at the same party, alone, while the others have moved on.
While Newcastle United has access to vast wealth, primarily their first concern should be staying in the Premier League. Second, they need to attract players who otherwise want European football, who want to live in the North East (not London or Manchester) and who want to play for the club, not come for the money and stay for the money. Mercenaries. If Kylian Mbappe ever decides to leave PSG, if he had the pick of the Manchester clubs, Chelsea, Liverpool or Newcastle United, where is he realistically going to go? Same question for a talented youth player. Even if one or two of the above clubs dropped out, again where are players going to go if they have the opportunity to live in Manchester or London? I do not wish to perform a disservice to the North East, Northumberland is a beautiful place (and a favourite holiday destination). However, we are looking through the lens of a professional footballer – they aren’t exactly “normal” people like most football fans.
In reality, Newcastle United supporters want a squad of talented youth, intelligent acquisitions, and a good coach to guide them. They will always be tainted with the fact their money comes from a Nation State, which produces oil and is responsible for horrible human rights violations, discrimination against women and members of the LBGTQ community. Newcastle United supporters will have to reconcile with this (somehow). So in order to be taken seriously, and become a serious club, they need to invest wisely (in the club, infrastructure and squad) and target a realistic title challenge in 5-10 years. Simply dumping money on the transfer market will not work – that ship has sailed and Financial Fair Play tide has gone well and truly out.
So, I think we have little to worry about Newcastle United accessing the cheat codes and becoming the omnipresent supremacy of the Premier League.
Will all Arsenal fans share this viewpoint? I suspect not, but that is fine. A diverse fan base of different views, opinions, stances, and positions is important for normal footballing discourse. I am not an “Arteta Apologist” but I can see what he is trying to do, and that takes time and patience.
Your stance, reader, will depend on your level of expectation. Of course, we all want Arsenal to become serious title challengers, to compete for trophies and return to Champions League football. However, do you seriously think we will go straight there this season? Probably not. Next season? Probably not. The season after? Yes, most likely. With the ongoing development of this current squad, good recruitment and a prolonged period of form and implementation of Arteta’s strategy, we will (I think) return to become mainstays of the top 6 positions, and may even pick up an FA Cup or League Cup. Will we win the Premier League in 2-3 years? Stranger things have happened.
If you are a die-hard “#ArtetaOut”, then ask yourself “why?”. Why the strong sense of feeling that Arteta is more harm than help? Are you basing your opinion on the last two seasons of 8th place finishes? Despite a covid-19 affected season (or two seasons), do you think Arteta has had enough time to implement his plans? Do you consider the recent run of form a “fluke” (as someone on Twitter tried to argue with me)? Do you consider the summer recruitment somehow a failure? You have your reasons, and that is more than fine. You may end up being right. However, in the meantime, continue supporting the club and the manager. You may not like Mikel Arteta, but he is the current manager and the architect of our current performances. Be prepared to be proven wrong as well as right. Arsenal is on a solid path and the supporters play a part in that success – whether or not they support the manager behind it.